Discussion Paper Series

A general theory of tax-smoothing
Anastasios G. Karantounias
Paper No CFM-DP2024-44, December 2024
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LASH risk and Interest Rates
Laura Alfaro, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathon Hazell and Ioana Neamțu
Paper No CFM-DP2024-43, December 2024
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Unbalanced Growth and Land Overvaluation
Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda
Paper No CFM-DP2024-42, November 2024
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Job Search, Job Findings and the Role of Unemployment Insurance History
Similan Rujiwattanapong
Paper No CFM-DP2024-41, October 2024
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Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs
Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian and Christina Patterson
Paper No CFM-DP2024-40, October 2024
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Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach
Jonathon Hazell and Stephan Hobler
Paper No CFM-DP2024-39, October 2024
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Concentrated Risk: Misallocation and Granular Business Cycles
Tomer Ifergane
Paper No CFM-DP2024-38, September 2024
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How likely is an inflation disaster?
Jens Hilscher, Alon Raviv and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-37, September 2024
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The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements
Leonardo Melosi, Hiroshi Morita, Anna Rogantini Picco, and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-36, August 2024
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Two Centuries of Systemic Bank Runs
Rustam Jamilov, Tobias König, Karsten Müller and Farzad Saidi
Paper No CFM-DP2024-35, August 2024
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Food prices matter most: Sensitive household inflation expectations
Nikoleta Anesti, Vania Esady and Matthew Naylor
Paper No CFM-DP2024-34, August 2024
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How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed
Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-33, July 2024
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Neural Network Learning for Nonlinear Economies
Julian Ashwin, Paul Beaudry and Martin Ellison
Paper No CFM-DP2024-32, July 2024
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Geopolitical Risk and Inflation: The Role of Energy Markets
Marco Pinchetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-31, July 2024
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The Impact of Aggregate Fluctuations Across the UK Income Distribution
Tomas Key and Jamie Lenney
Paper No CFM-DP2024-30, July 2024
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Slowdown in Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Declining Skill Premia
Federico S. Mandelman, Yang Yu, Francesco Zanetti and Andrei Zlate
Paper No CFM-DP2024-29, June 2024
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Dynamics of the Long Term Housing Yield: Evidence from Natural Experiments
Verónica Bäcker-Peral, Jonathon Hazell and Atif Mian
Paper No CFM-DP2024-28, June 2024
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Housing Bubbles with Phase Transitions
Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda
Paper No CFM-DP2024-27, June 2024
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The Role of Sell Frictions for Inventories and Business Cycles
Wouter J. Den Haan and Tiancheng Sun
Paper No CFM-DP2024-26, June 2024
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The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation
Ivan Yotzov, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2024-25, May 2024
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Firms’ Sales Expectations and Marginal Propensity to Invest
Andrea Alati, Johannes J. Fischer, Maren Froemel and Ozgen Ozturk
Paper No CFM-DP2024-24, May 2024
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The Global Network of Liquidity Lines
Saleem Bahaj, Marie Fuchs and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-23, May 2024
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Controls, Not Shocks: Estimating Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics
Simon Lloyd and Ed Manuel
Paper No CFM-DP2024-22, May 2024
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Bubble Necessity Theorem
Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda
Paper No CFM-DP2024-21, April 2024
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Unemployment in a Commodity-Rich Economy: How Relevant Is Dutch Disease?
Mariano Kulish, James Morley, Nadine Yamout and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-20, April 2024
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Dominant Currency Pricing Transition
Marco Garofalo, Giovanni Rosso and Roger Vicquéry
Paper No CFM-DP2024-19, April 2024
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Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation 
Salomé Fofana, Paula Patzelt and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-18, April 2024
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Monetary financing does not produce miraculous fiscal multipliers
Christiaan van der Kwaak
Paper No CFM-DP2024-17, March 2024
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The Adoption and Termination of Suppliers over the Business Cycle
Le Xu, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-16, March 2024
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Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution using Dividend Tax News Shocks
Martin B. Holm, Rustam Jamilov, Marek Jasinski and Plamen Nenov
Paper No CFM-DP2024-15, March 2024
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Granular Sentiments
Rustam Jamilov, Alexandre Kohlhas, Oleksandr Talavera and Mao Zhang
Paper No CFM-DP2024-14, March 2024
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Government Debt Management and Inflation with Real and Nominal Bonds
Lukas Schmid, Vytautas Valaitis and Alessandro T. Villa
Paper No CFM-DP2024-13, March 2024
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Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-12, March 2024
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Estimating the rise in expected inflation from higher energy prices
Paula Patzelt and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-11, March 2024
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Fiscal Events and Anchored Inflation Expectations
Ethan Ilzetzki
Paper No CFM-DP2024-10, March 2024
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Fiscal Rules and Market Discipline
Ethan Ilzetzki and Heidi Christina Thysen
Paper No CFM-DP2024-09, March 2024
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UK Financial Crisis of 2022: Retrospective Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations
Ethan Ilzetzki
Paper No CFM-DP2024-08, February 2024
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Core Strength: International Evidence on the Impact of Energy Prices on Core Inflation
Gertjan Vlieghe
Paper No CFM-DP2024-07, February 2024
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Monetary-Fiscal Interaction and the Liquidity of Government Debt
Cristiano Cantore and Edoardo Leonardi
Paper No CFM-DP2024-06, January 2024
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The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptionson Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory
Xiwen Bai, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-05, January 2024
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Banks, Credit Reallocation, and Creative Destruction
Christian Keuschnigg, Michael Kogler, and Johannes Matt
Paper No CFM-DP2024-04, January 2024
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Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression
Jason Lennard and Meredith M. Paker
Paper No CFM-DP2024-03, January 2024
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Banks and the Economy: Evidence from the Irish Bank Strike of 1966
Jason Lennard, Seán Kenny and Emma Horgan
Paper No CFM-DP2024-02, January 2024
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The anatomy of a peg: lessons from China’s parallel currencies
Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-01, January 2024
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European Business Cycles and Economic Growth, 1300-2000
Stephen Broadberry and Jason Lennard
Paper No CFM-DP2023-23, November 2023
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Bubble Economics
Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda
Paper No CFM-DP2023-22, November 2023
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Bonus Question: Does Flexible Incentive Pay Dampen Unemployment Dynamics?
Meghana Gaur, John Grigsby, Jonathon Hazell and Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Paper No CFM-DP2023-21, September 2023
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Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks
Ricardo Nunes, Ali Ozdagli and Jenny Tang
Paper No CFM-DP2023-20, July 2023
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The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Pricing: Macro and Micro Evidence
Brendan Berthold, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Federico Di Pace and Alex Haberis
Paper No CFM-DP2023-19, July 2023
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House Price Expectations and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data
Vedanta Dhamija, Ricardo Nunes and Roshni Tara
Paper No CFM-DP2023-18, July 2023
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To Own or to Rent? The Effects of Transaction Taxes on Housing Markets
Lu Han, L. Rachel Ngai and Kevin D. Sheedy
Paper No CFM-DP2023-17, June 2023
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The Macroeconomic Effect of the UK’s 2022 Cost-of-Living Payments
Max. A. Mosley and Edmund Cornforth
Paper No CFM-DP2023-16, May 2023
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Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency
Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
Paper No CFM-DP2023-15, May 2023
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Dash for Dollars
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Robert Czech and Fernando Eguren-Martin
Paper No CFM-DP2023-14, April 2023
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Self-fulfilling labor wedge fluctuations and unemployment insurance
Nikolaos Kokonas and Paulo Santos Monteiro
Paper No CFM-DP2023-13, March 2023
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Doubts about the model and optimal policy
Anastasios G. Karantounias
Paper No CFM-DP2023-12, March 2023
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The Regional Keynesian Cross
Marco Bellifemine, Adrien Couturier and Rustam Jamilov
Paper No CFM-DP2023-11, March 2023
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The Racial Wealth Gap: the Role of Entrepreneurship
Daniel Albuquerque and Tomer Ifergane
Paper No CFM-DP2023-10, March 2023
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CBDC Policies in Open Economies
Michael Kumhof, Marco Pinchetti, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul and Andrej Sokol
Paper No CFM-DP2023-09, March 2023
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A tail of labor supply and a tale of monetary policy
Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni, Haroon Mumtaz and Angeliki Theophilopoulou
Paper No CFM-DP2023-08, March 2023
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Global house prices since 1950
Haroon Mumtaz and Roman Šustek
Paper No CFM-DP2023-07, March 2023
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Capital Controls and Free-Trade Agreements
Simon Lloyd and Emile Marin
Paper No CFM-DP2023-06, February 2023
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Learning By Necessity: Government demand, capacity constraints, and productivity growth
Ethan Ilzetzki
Paper No CFM-DP2023-05, February 2023
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Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty
Luca Gambetti, Dimitris Korobilis, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2023-04, February 2023
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Exchange Rates, Tariffs and Prices in 1930s’ Britain
Jagjit S. Chadha, Jason Lennard, Solomos Solomou and Ryland Thomas
Paper No CFM-DP2023-03, February 2023
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Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2023-02, January 2023
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Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: Measurement and Policy Responses
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2023-01, January 2023
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When to Lock, Not Whom: Managing Epidemics Using Time-Based Restrictions
Yinon Bar-On, Tanya Baron, Ofer Cornfeld and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2022-20, December 2022
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Social Capital and Monetary Policy
Rustam Jamilov
Paper No CFM-DP2022-19, November 2022
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Testing the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in Japan and the United States
Daisuke Ikeda, Shangshang Li, Sophocles Mavroeidis and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2022-18, October 2022
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The Divisia approach to measuring output and productivity: with an application to the BEA-BLS integrated industry-level production account, 1987-2020
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2022-17, October 2022
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Energy Prices and Household Heterogeneity: Monetary Policy in a Gas-TANK
Jenny Chan, Sebastian Diz, and Derrick Kanngiesser
Paper No CFM-DP2022-16, October 2022
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Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence
Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, Tomohiro Hirano and Ryo Jinnai
Paper No CFM-DP2022-15, September 2022
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Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2022-14, September 2022
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The Ins and Outs of Selling Houses: Understanding Housing-Market Volatility
L. Rachel Ngai and Kevin D. Sheedy
Paper No CFM-DP2022-13, September 2022
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Time to Say Goodbye: The Macroeconomic Implications of Termination Notice
Tomer Ifergane
Paper No CFM-DP2022-12, September 2022
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Mainly Employment: Survey-Based News and the Business Cycle
Riccardo M. Masolo
Paper No CFM-DP2022-11, August 2022
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The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Markup Estimation
Maarten De Ridder, Basile Grassi and Giovanni Morzenti
Paper No CFM-DP2022-10, August 2022
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The Burst of High Inflation in 2021–22: How and Why Did We Get Here?
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2022-09, July 2022
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State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: The Source of Fluctuations Matters
Mishel Ghassibe and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2022-08, July 2022
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Firm Cyclicality and Financial Frictions
Alex Clymo and Filip Rozsypal
Paper No CFM-DP2022-07, June 2022
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Sanctions and the Exchange Rate
Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin
Paper No CFM-DP2022-06, May 2022
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The Productivity-Welfare Linkage: A Decomposition
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2022-05, March 2022
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The Wobbly Economy; Global Dynamics with Phase Transitions and State Transitions
Tomohiro Hirano and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Paper No CFM-DP2022-04, January 2022
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National Wage Setting
Jonathon Hazell, Christina Patterson, Heather Sarsons and Bledi Taska
Paper No CFM-DP2022-03, January 2022
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Unemployment Insurance Financing As A Uniform Payroll Tax
Sebastian Graves, Jonathon Hazell, Walker F. Lewis and Christina Patterson
Paper No CFM-DP2022-02, January 2022
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Land Speculation and Wobbly Dynamics with Endogenous Phase Transitions
Tomohiro Hirano and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Paper No CFM-DP2022-01, January 2022
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The effect of changes in the terms of trade on GDP and welfare: a Divisia approach to the SNA 
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2021-26, November 2021
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Trade Credit Default
Xavier Mateos-Planas and Giulio Seccia
Paper No CFM-DP2021-25, November 2021
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Optimal Policy under Dollar Pricing
Konstantin Egorov and Dmitry Mukhin
Paper No CFM-DP2021-24, October 2021
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Losing the inflation anchor
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2021-23, October 2021
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Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times
Roman Šustek
Paper No CFM-DP2021-22, October 2021
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The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows 
Felipe Saffie, Liliana Varela and Kei-Mu Yi
Paper No CFM-DP2021-21, October 2021
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A back-of-the-envelope analysis of house prices: Czech Republic, 2013-2021
Roman Šustek
Paper No CFM-DP2021-20, October 2021
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Bubbles, Crashes, and Ups and Downs in Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence 
Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana,Tomohiro Hirano and Ryo Jinnai
Paper No CFM-DP2021-19, September 2021
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Climate-Change Pledges, Actions and Outcomes
Silvana Tenreyro and Tiloka de Silva
Paper No CFM-DP2021-18, September 2021
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A Tale of Two Global Monetary Policies
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Tsvetelina  Nenova
Paper No CFM-DP2021-17, August 2021
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The Transmission of Keynesian Supply Shocks    
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Andrea Ferrero
Paper No CFM-DP2021-16, August 2021
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Profitability, Productivity and Growth
Marek Ignaszak and Petr Sedláček
Paper No CFM-DP2021-15, June 2021
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Size Discount and Size Penalty: Trading Costs in Bond Markets
Gábor Pintér, Chaojun Wang and Junyuan Zou
Paper No CFM-DP2021-14, April 2021
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The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve
Guido Ascari and Luca Fosso
Paper No CFM-DP2021-13, April 2021
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Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix
Guido Ascari, Peder Beck-Friis, Anna Florio and Alessandro Gobbi
Paper No CFM-DP2021-12, March 2021
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The constraint on public debt when r < g but g < m
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2021-11, March 2021
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Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits
Anthony Savagar
Paper No CFM-DP2021-10, March 2021
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Short-squeeze bubbles
Bernardo Guimaraes and Pierluca Pannella
Paper No CFM-DP2021-09, March 2021
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Imperfect Information, Heterogeneous Demand Shocks, and Inflation Dynamics
Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2021-08, March 2021
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A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions
Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui
Paper No CFM-DP2021-07, February 2021
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The Contrarian Put
Fernando Chague, Bruno Giovannetti and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No CFM-DP2021-06, February 2021
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The “Matthew Effect” and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power
Jeśus Fernández-Villaverde, Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2021-05, February 2021
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The Limits of onetary Economics: On Money As a Latent Medium of Exchange
Ricardo Lagos and Shengxing Zhang
Paper No CFM-DP2021-04, February 2021
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The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Shocks
Ethan Ilzetzki and Keyu Jin
Paper No CFM-DP2021-03, January 2021
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Monetary Policy, Firm Heterogeneity, and Product Variety
Masashige Hamano and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2021-02, January 2021
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Economic Growth in a Cooperative Economy
Thomas Brzustowski and Francesco Caselli 
Paper No CFM-DP2021-01, January 2021 
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The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2020-33, December 2020
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Informed Trading and the Dynamics of Client-Dealer Connections in Corporate Bond Markets
Robert Czech and Gábor Pintér
Paper No CFM-DP2020-32, December 2020
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Credit Frictions in the Great Recession
Patrick J. Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigan and Elena Pastorino
Paper No CFM-DP2020-31, December 2020
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COVID19: Erroneous Modelling and Its Policy Implications
Yinon Bar-On, Tatiana Baron, Ofer Cornfeld, Ron Milo and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2020-30, December 2020
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An Analytical Model of Covid-19 Lockdowns
Łukasz Rachel
Paper No CFM-DP2020-29, December 2020
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Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires
Jonathon Hazell and Bledi Taska
Paper No CFM-DP2020-28, December 2020
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New Shocks under Financial Frictions
Christoph Görtz, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2020-27, November 2020
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A Multisector Perspective on Wage Stagnation
Rachel Ngai and Orhun Sevinc
Paper No CFM-DP2020-26, November 2020
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The Economic Impact of Recession Announcements
Andrew C. Eggers, Martin Ellison and Sang Seok Lee
Paper No CFM-DP2020-25, November 2020
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Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates
Iryna Kaminska, Haroon Mumtaz and Roman Sustek
Paper No CFM-DP2020-24, November 2020
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Productive Robots and Industrial Employment: The role of national innovation systems
Chrystalla Kapetaniou and Christopher A Pissarides
Paper No CFM-DP2020-23, September 2020
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Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight?
Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
Paper No CFM-DP2020-22, July 2020
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On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models
Bernardo Guimaraes and Lucas Tumkus
Paper No CFM-DP2020-21, July 2020
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Monetary Policy and Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations
Jenny Chan
Paper No CFM-DP2020-20, July 2020
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Debt crises, fast and slow
Giancarlo Corsetti and Seung Hyun Maeng
Paper No CFM-DP2020-19, June 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A century of arbitrage and disaster risk pricing in the foreign exchange market
Giancarlo Corsetti and Emile A. Marin
Paper No CFM-DP2020-18, June 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Stabilization of Tariff Shocks: What is the Optimal Monetary Response?
Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti
Paper No CFM-DP2020-17, June 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic
Martin Bodenstein, Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri 
Paper No CFM-DP2020-16, June 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Jumpstarting an International Currency
Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2020-15, May 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in General Equilibrium
Nikolaos Kokonas and Paulo Santos Monteiro
Paper No CFM-DP2020-14, May 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Effect of Social Distancing on the Reach of an Epidemic in Social Networks
Gregory Gutin, Tomohiro Hirano, Sung-Ha Hwang, Philip R. Neary and Alexis Akira Toda
Paper No CFM-DP2020-13, May 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth
Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, Tomohiro Hirano and Ryo Jinnai
Paper No CFM-DP2020-12, April 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Volatile Hiring: Uncertainty in Search and Matching Models
Wouter den Haan, Lukas B. Freund and Pontus Rendahl
Paper No CFM-DP2020-11, April 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Moving from a Poor Economy to a Rich One: The Contradictory Roles of Technology and Job Tasks
Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2020-10, March 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy
Martin Bodenstein, Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Guerrieri
Paper No CFM-DP2020-09
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc
Paper No CFM-DP2020-08
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] Technical Appendix [PDF]

Financial constraints and collateral crises
Luis Araujo, Bernardo Guimaraes and Diego Rodrigues
Paper No CFM-DP2020-07
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Output Costs of Education and Skill Mismatch
Pietro Garibaldi, Pedro Gomes and Thepthida Sopraseuth
Paper No CFM-DP2020-06
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity
Gareth Anderson and Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Paper No CFM-DP2020-05
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Global Footprints of Monetary Policies
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Tsvetelina Nenova and Helene Rey
Paper No CFM-DP2020-04
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles
Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born and Ralph Luetticke
Paper No CFM-DP2020-03
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Measuring Productivity: theory and British practice
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2020-02
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Public Employment Redux
Pietro Garibaldi, Pedro Gomes and Thepthida Sopraseuth
Paper No CFM-DP2020-01
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Mortgage Cash-flows and Employment
Fergus Cumming
Paper No CFM-DP2019-22
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

News Uncertainty in Brexit U.K.
Renato Faccini and Edoardo Palombo
Paper No CFM-DP2019-21
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model
Carlos Carriga, Finn E. Kydland and Roman Sustek
Paper No CFM-DP2019-20
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Labour market flows: Accounting for the public sector
Idriss Fontaine, Ismael Galvez-Iniesta, Pedro Gomes and Diego Vila-Martin
Paper No CFM-DP2019-19
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Imperfect Information, Shock Heterogeneity, and Inflation Dynamics
Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga, Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2019-18
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2019-17
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom
Ben Broadbent, Federico Di Pace, Thomas Drechsel, Richard Harrison and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2019-16
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis
Markus K. Bunnermeier and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2019-15
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Fast Trading and the Virtue of Entropy: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market
Giancarlo Corsetti, Romain Lafarguette and Arnaud Mehl
Paper No CFM-DP2019-14
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Revisiting the Global Decline of the (Non-Housing) Labor Share
German Gutierrez and Sophie Piton
Paper No CFM-DP2019-13
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Foreign Direct Investment as a Determinant of Cross-Country Stock Market Comovement
Alexios Anagnostopoulos, Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu, Elisa Faraglia and Chryssi Giannitsarou
Paper No CFM-DP2019-12
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Partial Default
Cristina Arellano, Xavier Mateos-Planas and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull
Paper No CFM-DP2019-11
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Do Unit Labour Costs Matter? A Decomposition Exercise on European Data
Sophie Piton
Paper No CFM-DP2019-10, May 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Unemployment Dynamics and Endogenous Unemployment Insurance Extensions
W. Similan Rujiwattanapong
Paper No CFM-DP2019-09, May 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Distressed Banks, Distorted Decisions?
Gareth Anderson, Rebecca Riley and Garry Young
Paper No CFM-DP2019-08, April 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy
Maarten de Ridder
Paper No CFM-DP2019-07, March 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

GDP is a measure of output, not welfare. Or, HOS meets the SNA
Nicholas Outlon
Paper No CFM-DP2019-06, March 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data
Lena Boneva, James Cloyne, Martin Weale and Tomasz Wieladek 
Paper No CFM-DP2019-05, March 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Fiscal Policy and Investment
Carlo Galli
Paper No CFM-DP2019-04, February 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Tax evasion as contingent debt
Christos Kotsogiannis and Xavier Mateos-Planas
Paper No CFM-DP2019-03, February 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016
Joao Ayres, Marcio Garcia, Diogo Guillen and Patrick Kehoe
Paper No CFM-DP2019-02, January 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Private Information and Client Connections in Government Bond Markets
Peter Kondor and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2019-01, January 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Employment and the Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy
Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis, Gabor Pinter and Paolo Surico
Paper No CFM-DP2018-32, December 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Double deflation: theory and practice
Nicholas Oulton, Ana Rincon-Aznar, Lea Samek and Sylaja Srinivasan
Paper No CFM-DP2018-31, December 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Quantitative Easing
Wei Cui and Vincent Sterk
Paper No CFM-DP2018-30, November 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Missing Link: Monetary policy and the labor share
Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni and Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma
Paper No CFM-DP2018-29, November 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Unemployment Insurance and Labour Productivity over the Business Cycle
W. Similan Rujiwattanapong
Paper No CFM-DP2018-28, August 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monopsony in the UK
Will Abel, Silvana Tenreyro and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2018-27, October 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Agnostic Structural Disturbances (ASDs): Detecting and Reducing Misspecification in Empirical Macroeconomic Models
Wouter J. Den Haan and Thomas Drechsel
Paper No CFM-DP2018-26, September 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models: identification using a diagnostic indicator
Jagjit S. Chadha and  Katsuyuki Shibayama
Paper No CFM-DP2018-25, September 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Uncertain Kingdom: Nowcasting GDP and its Revisions
Nikoleta Anesti, Ana Beatriz Galvao and Silvia Miranda-Agrippino
Paper No CFM-DP2018-24, August 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Sinem Hacioglu Hoke and Kristina Bluwstein
Paper No CFM-DP2018-23, August 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications
Carlo Pizzinelli, Konstantinos Theodoridis and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2018-22, August 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Of Gold and Paper Money
Jagjit S. Chadha
Paper No CFM-DP2018-21, August 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Consumption Response to Aggregate Shocks and the Role of Leverage
Agnes Kovacs, May Rostom and Philip Bunn
Paper No CFM-DP2018-20, July 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Transmission of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios
Ralph Luetticke
Paper No CFM-DP2018-19, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing
Antonello d’Alessandro, Giulio Fella and Leonardo Melosi
Paper No CFM-DP2018-18, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Nonlinear household earnings dynamics, self-insurance, and welfare
Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella, and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo
Paper No CFM-DP2018-17, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Central Bank Swap Lines
Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2018-16, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve
Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2018-15, May 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Economic Integration and Bilateral FDI stocks: the impacts of NAFTA and the EU
Ray Barrell and Abdulkader Nahhas
Paper No CFM-DP2018-14, May 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Lending Relationships and the Collateral Channel
Gareth Anderson, Saleem Bahaj, Matthieu Chavaz, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2018-13, May 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Macroeconomic Shocks and Risk Premia
Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2018-12, May 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

China’s mobility barriers and employment allocations
L Rachel Ngai, Christopher A Pissarides and Jin Wang
Paper No CFM-DP2018-11, April 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Central Banks Going Long
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2018-10, April 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The UK (and Western) Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2018-09, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco
Paper No CFM-DP2018-08, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Beauty Contests and the Term Structure
Martin Ellison and Andreas Tischbirek
Paper No CFM-DP2018-07, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-off
Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc
Paper No CFM-DP2018-06, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

One Money, Many Markets
Giancarlo Corsetti, Joao B. Duarte and Samuel Mann
Paper No CFM-DP2018-05, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Social Subsidies and Marketization: the role of gender and skill
Robert Duval-Hernandez, Lei Fang, L. Rachel Ngai
Paper No CFM-DP2018-04, February 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Markets and Markups: A New Empirical Framework and Evidence on Exporters from China
Giancarlo Corsetti, Meredith Crowley, Lu Han, Huasheng Song
Paper No CFM-DP2018-03, February 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

GDP and the System of National Accounts: past, present and future
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2018-02, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Time-Consistently Undominated Policies
Charles Brendon and Martin Ellison
Paper No CFM-DP2018-01, January 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote
Benjamin Born, Gernot J. Müller, Moritz Schularick and Petr Sedláček
Paper No CFM-DP2017-38, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Nature of Firm Growth
Benjamin W. Pugsley, Petr Sedláček and Vincent Sterk
Paper No CFM-DP2017-37, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Importance of Hiring Frictions in Business Cycles
Renato Faccini and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2017-36, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium
David Rezza Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi
Paper No CFM-DP2017-35, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten’s Theorem
David Rezza Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi
Paper No CFM-DP2017-34, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach Comment
Francesco Caselli and Antonio Ciccone
Paper No CFM-DP2017-33, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Friedman’s Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought
N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2017-32, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates
Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui
Paper No CFM-DP2017-31, October 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy
Luca Gambetti, Dimitris Korobilis, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2017-30, October 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Contingent judicial deference: theory and application to usury laws
Bernardo Guimaraes and Bruno Meyerhof Salama
Paper No CFM-DP2017-29, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Skill-Biased Technical Change and Labor Market Polarization: The Role of Skill Heterogeneity Within Occupations
Orhun Sevinc
Paper No CFM-DP2017-28, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017
Martin Ellison and Andrew Scott
Paper No CFM-DP2017-27, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: theory and applications
Bernardo Guimaraes, Caio Machado and Ana Elisa Pereira
Paper No CFM-DP2017-26, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Measuring Productivity Dispersion: Lessons from counting one-hundred million ballots
Ethan Ilzetzki and Saverio Simonelli
Paper No CFM-DP2017-25, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Home Values and Firm Behaviour
Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2017-24, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies
Thomas Drechsel and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2017-23, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Step away from the zero lower bound: Small open economies in a world of secular stagnation
Giancarlo Corsetti, Eleonora Mavroeidi, Gregory Thwaites and Martin Wolf
Paper No CFM-DP2017-22, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Fixed on Flexible Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession
Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester and Gernot J. Müller
Paper No CFM-DP2017-21, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Official Sector Lending Strategies During the Euro Area Crisis
Giancarlo Corsetti, Aitor Erce and Timothy Uy
Paper No CFM-DP2017-20, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Macroeconomic Effects of Delayed Capital Liquidation
Wei Cui
Paper No CFM-DP2017-19, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Large Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model
Tiloka de Silva and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2017-18, July 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Population Control Policies and Fertility Convergence
Tiloka de Silva and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2017-17, July 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Default Cycles
Wei Cui and Leo Kaas
Paper No CFM-DP2017-16, May 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises
Marco Bassetto and Carlo Galli
Paper No CFM-DP2017-15, April 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data
Miguel Leόn-Ledesma and Alessio Moro
Paper No CFM-DP2017-14, April 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Is something really wrong with macroeconomics?
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2017-13, April 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [ [PDF]

Fiscal Unions Redux
Patrick J. Kehoe and and Elena Pastorino
Paper No CFM-DP2017-12, March 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco
Paper No CFM-DP2017-11, March 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Political Specialization
Bernardo Guimaraes and Kevin Sheedy
Paper No CFM-DP2017-10, February 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation
Riccardo Masolo and Francesca Monti
Paper No CFM-DP2017-09, February 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Foreign Booms, Domestic Busts: The Global Dimension of Banking Crises
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Fernando Eguren Martin and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2017-08, February 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
Andrew Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens and Morten O. Ravn
Paper No CFM-DP2017-07, February 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Mystery of TFP
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2017-06, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies
André Diniz and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No CFM-DP2017-05, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Role of Gender in Employment Polarization
Fabio Cerina, Alessio Moro and Michelle Petersen Rendall
Paper No CFM-DP2017-04, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?
Bernardo Guimaraes and Carlos Eduardo Ladeira
Paper No CFM-DP2017-03, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election
Augusto Carvalho and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No CFM-DP2017-02, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2017-01, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Effect of Foreign Investors on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from the UK
Filipa Sá
Paper No CFM-DP2016-39, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy in a Debt Crisis
Neele Balke and Morten Ravn
Paper No CFM-DP2016-38, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Aggregate Hiring and the Value of Jobs Along the Business Cycle
Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2016-37, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Foreign Booms, Domestic Busts: The Global Dimension of Banking Crises
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Fernando Eguren Martin and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2016-36, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

History Dependence in the Housing Market
Philippe Bracke and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2016-35, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves
Robert E. Hall and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2016-34, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Macroeconomic Fluctuations with HANK &
SAM: An Analytical Approach
Morten O. Ravn and Vincent Sterk
Paper No CFM-DP2016-33, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Impact of Taxes on Income Mobility
Mario Alloza
Paper No CFM-DP2016-32, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or
During  Recessions?
Mario Alloza
Paper No CFM-DP2016-31, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of
Financial Crises on Output
Maarten de Ridder
Paper No CFM-DP2016-30, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Returns to on-the-job search and the dispersion of wages
Axel Gottfries and Coen Teulings
Paper No CFM-DP2016-29, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Secular Stagnation, Rational Bubbles, and Fiscal Policy
Coen N. Teulings
Paper No CFM-DP2016-28, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

ESBies: Safety in the tranches
Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sam Langfield, Marco Pagano, Ricardo Reis, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Dimitri Vayanos
Paper No CFM-DP2016-27, September 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Funding Quantitative Easing to Target Inflation
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2016-26, September 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Nominal rigidities in debt and product markets
Carlos Garriga, Finn E. Kydland and Roman Sustek
Paper No CFM-DP2016-25, August 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Financial Market Imperfections and Labour Market Outcomes
Alireza Sepahsalari
Paper No CFM-DP2016-24, August 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Shock with the Highest Price of Risk
Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2016-23, August 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Finance and Synchronization
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Jean Imbs and Jumana Saleheen
Paper No CFM-DP2016-22, August 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Decision to Move House and Aggregate Housing-Market Dynamics
L. Rachel Ngai and Kevin Sheedy
Paper No CFM-DP2016-21, July 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

QE in the Future: the central bank’s balance sheet in a financial crisis
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2016-20, July 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systemically Fooled?
Ran Spiegler
Paper No CFM-DP2016-19, June 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Optimal Automatic Stabilizers
Alisdair McKay and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2016-18, June 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies
Markus K. Brunnermeier, Luis Garicano, Philip R. Lane, Marco Pagano, Ricardo Reis, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Dimitri Vayanosy
Paper No CFM-DP2016-17, June 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Matching Workers
Espen R. Moen and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2016-16, June 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Job Displacement Risk and Severance Pay
Giulio Fella and Marco Cozzi
Paper No CFM-DP2016-15, May 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Parents, Schools and Human Capital Differences across Countries
Marta De Philippis and Federico Rossi
Paper No CFM-DP2016-14, May 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino
Paper No CFM-DP2016-13, May 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Gregory Thwaites and Alejandro Vicondoa
Paper No CFM-DP2016-12, April 2016
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The Theory of Unconventional Monetary Policy
Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk
Paper No CFM-DP2016-11, April 2016
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Firms' Precautionary Savings and Employment During a Credit Crisis
Davide Melcangi
Paper No CFM-DP2016-10, March 2016
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VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks
Ching-Wai Chiu, Haroon Mumtaz and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2016-09, March 2016
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On the Mechanics of New Keynesian Models
Peter Rupert and Roman Sustek
Paper No CFM-DP2016-08, February 2016
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The Residential Collateral Channel
Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2016-07, February 2016
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Stagnation Traps
Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro
Paper No CFM-DP2016-06, February 2016
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Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate
Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith
Paper No CFM-DP2016-05, February 2016
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Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth
Juan Antolin-Diaz, Thomas Drechsel and Ivan Petrella
Paper No CFM-DP2016-04, January 2016
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The Dark Corners of the Labor Market
Vincent Sterk
Paper No CFM-DP2016-03, January 2016
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Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates
Raffaella Giacomini, Vasiliki Skreta and Javier Turen
Paper No CFM-DP2016-02, January 2016
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Asymmetric Inflation Expectations, Downward Rigidity of Wages and Asymmetric Business Cycles
David Rezza Baqaee
Paper No CFM-DP2016-01, January 2016
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Shocking Language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication
Stephen Hansen and Michael McMahon
Paper No CFM-DP2015-37, December 2015
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Exact Present Solution with Consistent Future Approximation: A gridless algorithm to stochastic dynamic models
Wouter den Haan, Michal Kobielarz, and Pontus Rendahl
Paper No CFM-DP2015-36, December 2015
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Looking for a success in the euro crisis adjustment programs: the case of Portugal
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2015-35, November 2015
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Endogenous Market Making and Network Formation
Briana Chang and Shengxing Zhang
Paper No CFM-DP2015-34, November 2015
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An Economic Analysis of Pension Tax Proposals
Angus Armstrong, Philip Davis and Monique Ebell
Paper No CFM-DP2015-33, November 2015
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The Persistence of a Banking Crisis
Kilian Huber
Paper No CFM-DP2015-32, November 2015
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Unions in a Frictional Labor Market
Leena Rudanko and Per Krusell
Paper No CFM-DP2015-31, November 2015
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Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle
Per Krusell, Toshihiko Mukoyama, Richard Rogerson and Ayşegűl Şahin
Paper No CFM-DP2015-30, November 2015
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Energy-Saving Technical Change
John Hassler, Per Krusell and Conny Olovsson
Paper No CFM-DP2015-29, November 2015
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The Impact of Contract Enforcement Costs on Outsourcing and Aggregate Productivity
Johannes Boehm
Paper No CFM-DP2015-28, November 2015
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Globalization and Synchronization of Innovation Cycles
Kiminori Matsuyama, Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini
Paper No CFM-DP2015-27, October 2015
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A Positive Theory of Tax Reform
Ethan Ilzetzki
Paper No CFM-DP2015-26, October 2015
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The Banks that Said No: Banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the UK
Jeremy Franklin, May Rostom and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2015-25, October 2015
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Space-Time (In)Consistency in the National Accounts: Causes and cures
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2015-24, October 2015
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QE and the Bank Lending Channel in the United Kingdom
Nick Butt, Rohan Churm, Michael McMahon, Arpad Morotz and Jochen Schanz
Paper No CFM-DP2015-23, October 2015
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The Fundamental Nature of HARA Utility
Gadi S. Perets and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2015-22, September 2015
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Unemployment (Fears) and Deflationary Spirals
Wouter Den Haan, Pontus Rendahl, and Markus Riegler
Paper No CFM-DP2015-21, September 2015
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Predictable Recoveries
Xiaoming Cai, Wouter Den Haan, and Jonathan Pinder
Paper No CFM-DP2015-20, September 2015
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The Home Market Effect and Patterns of Trade Between Rich and Poor Countries
Kiminori Matsuyama
Paper No CFM-DP2015-19, August 2015
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Diversification through Trade
Francesco Caselli, Miklos Koren, Milan Lisicky and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2015-18, August 2015.
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Experience-biased Technical Change
Francesco Caselli
Paper No CFM-DP2015-17, July 2015.
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Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The monetary dimensions of comparative advantage
Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti
Paper No CFM-DP2015-16, July 2015
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The Optimal Use of Government Purchases for Macroeconomic Stabilization
Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez
Paper No CFM-DP2015-15, June 2015
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What Moves International Stock and Bond Markets?
Gino Cenedese and Enrico Mallucci
Paper No CFM-DP2015-14, June 2015
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Communal Land and Agricultural Productivity
Charles Gottlieb and Jan Grobovšek
Paper No CFM-DP2015-13, June 2015
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Optimal Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Policies: A pecuniary externality perspective
Gianluca Benigno, Huigang Chen, Christopher Otrok, Alessandro Reducci and Eric R. Young
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-12, May 2015
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Large Capital Inflows, Sectoral Allocation, and Economic Performance
Gianluca Benigno, Nathan Converse and Luca Fornaro
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-11, May 2015
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Identifying Noise Shocks: a VAR with data revisions
Riccardo M. Masolo and Alessia Paccagnini
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-10, May 2015
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Towards a New Keynesian Theory of the Price Level
John Barrdear
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-09, May 2015
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Time-Consistent Consumption Taxation
Sarolta Laczó and Raffaele Rossi
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-08, April 2015
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House Price and Job Losses
Gabor Pinter
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-07, March 2015
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Monetary Policy with Ambiguity Averse Agents
Riccardo M. Masolo  and Francesca Monti
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-06, March 2015
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Can a Data-rich Environment Help Identify the Sources of Model Misspecification?
Francesca Monti
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-05, February 2015
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Time-dependent or State-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation episode
Celio Feltrin and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-04, February 2015
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Demand Expectations and the Timing of Stimulus Policies
Bernardo Guimaraes and Caio Machado
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-03, January 2015
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Capital Values and Job Values
Eran Yashiv
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-02, January 2015
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Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions
Morten O. Ravn and Vincent Sterk 
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-01, January 2015
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The Curse of Inflation
Erik Eyster, Kristof Madarasz and Pascal Michaillat
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-30, December 2014
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Estimating the Effects of Forward Guidance in Rational Expectations Models
Richard Harrison
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-29, November 2014
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Why are Real Interest Rates so Low? Secular Stagnation and the Relative Price of Investment Goods
Gregory Thwaites
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-28, October 2014
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Financial Disruption as a Cost of Sovereign Default: a quantitative assessment
Andre Diniz and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-27, September 2014
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A Model of the Confidence Channel of Fiscal Policy
Bernardo Guimaraes, Caio Machado and Marcel Ribeiro
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-26, September 2014
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An Economical Business-Cycle Model 
Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez 
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-25, September 2014
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The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling
Debt Crises
Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Dedola 
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-24, August 2014
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Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle
Finn E. Kydland, Peter Rupert and Roman Sustek
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-23, August 2014
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Transitory Interest-rate Pegs under Imperfect Credibility
Alex Haberis, Richard Harrison and Matt Waldron
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-22, August 2014
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The Latin American Efficiency Gap
Francesco Caselli
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-21, July 2014
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The Cost of Human Capital Depreciation during Unemployment
Lien Laureys
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-20, July 2014
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Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment 
Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez 
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-19, July 2014
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Shake Me the Money!
Francesco Porcelli and Riccardo Trezzi
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-18, July 2014
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Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations
Ran Spiegler
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-17, July 2014
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Exploiting the Monthly Data-flow in Structural Forecasting
Domenico Giannone, Francesca Monti and Lucrezia Reichlin
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-16, June 2014
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Optimal Monetary Policy in the Presence of Human Capital Depreciation during Unemployment
Lien Laureys
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-15, June 2014
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Managing Intrinsic Motivation in a Long-Run Relationship
Kfir Eliaz and Ran Spiegler
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-14, June 2014
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Government Spending Shocks, Wealth Effects and Distortionary Taxes
James Cloyne
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-13, June 2014
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Issues in the Design of Fiscal Policy Rules 
Jonathan Portes and Simon Wren-Lewis 
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-12, June 2014
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Transparency and Deliberation within the FOMC: a computational linguistics approach
Stephen Hansen, Michael McMahon and Andrea Prat
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-11, June 2014
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A Procedure for Combining Zero and Sign Restrictions in a VAR-Identification Scheme
Alex Haberis and Andrej Sokol
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-10, June 2014
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Peering into the Mist: Social learning over an opaque observation network
John Barrdear
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-09, June 2014
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Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries
Samuel Wills
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-08, June 2014 
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Productivity Dynamics in the Great Stagnation: Evidence from British businesses
Rebecca Riley, Chiara Rosazza Bondibene and Garry Young
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-07, June 2014
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Systemic Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic implications in the Euro Area
Saleem Bahaj
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-06, May 2014
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Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis
Pontus Rendahl
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-05, May 2014
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Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy
L. Rachel Ngai and Barbara Petrongolo
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-04, May 2014
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The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle
Petr Sedlacek and Vincent Sterk
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-03, February 2014
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Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions for Business Cycles
Wouter Den Haan
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-02, January 2014
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Modelling the Service Sector
Philip King and Stephen Millard
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-01, January 2014
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Medium and Long Run Prospects for UK Growth in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-07, December 2013
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Mortgages and Monetary Policy
Carlos Garriga, Finn E. Kydland and Roman Šustek
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-06, December 2013
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The Transmission of Monetary Policy Operations through Redistributions and Durable Purchases
Vincent Sterk and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-05, December 2013
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Did the Job Ladder Fail After the Great Recession?
Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-04, November 2013
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Optimal Unemployment Insurance over the Business Cycle
Camille Landais, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-03, October 2013
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Scotland’s Currency Options
Angus Armstrong, Monique Ebell
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-02, October 2013
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Pushing on a String: US monetary policy is less powerful in recessions
Silvana Tenreyro, Gregory Thwaites
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-01, October 2013
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