Close

Events

The art of uncertainty: living with chance, ignorance, risk, and luck

Hosted by the Department of Statistics

In-person and online public event (Sheikh Zayed Theatre, Cheng Kin Ku Building)

Speaker

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter

Chair

Professor Tengyao Wang

Professor Tengyao Wang

Join us for this event in which David Spiegelhalter will talk about his latest book, The Art of Uncertainty How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck.

Chance, luck, and ignorance; how to put our uncertainty into numbers. We all have to live with uncertainty about what is going to happen, what has happened, and why things turned out how they did. We attribute good and bad events as ‘due to chance’, label people as ‘lucky’, and (sometimes) admit our ignorance. David Spiegelhalter will show how to use the theory of probability to take apart all these ideas, and demonstrate how you can put numbers on your ignorance, and then measure how good those numbers are. Along the way we will look at three types of luck, and judge whether Derren Brown was lucky or unlucky when he was filmed flipping ten heads in a row.

Following the event David will be signing copies of the book.

Meet our speaker and chair

David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel) is Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge, having previously held the posts of Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, and Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. He works on ways to improve the way that statistical evidence is used by health professionals, patients, lawyers and judges, media and policy-makers. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics.

Tengyao Wang teaches in the Department of Statistics and is the MSc Statistics (Financial Statistics) Programme Director. He is broadly interested in the area of high-dimensional statistics. His research focuses mainly on developing computationally efficient procedures for high-dimensional problems, while at the same time understanding the potential statistical limitations imposed by computational constraints.

More about this event

This event will be available to watch on LSE Live. LSE Live is the new home for our live streams, allowing you to tune in and join the global debate at LSE, wherever you are in the world. If you can't attend live, a video will be made available shortly afterwards on LSE's YouTube channel.

The Department of Statistics (@LSEStatistics) is home to internationally respected expert in statistics and data science, whose top priority is maintaining and advancing a leading reputation for teaching and research. It has a distinguished history. Its roots can be traced back to the appointment of Sir Arthur Lyon Bowley, an alumnus of the University of Cambridge, at LSE in 1895. He was appointed Chair in Statistics in 1919, probably the first appointment of its kind in Britain.

Hashtag for this event: #LSEEvents

LSE Blogs
Many speakers at LSE events also write for LSE Blogs, which present research and critical commentary accessibly for a public audience. Follow British Politics and Policy, the Business Review, the Impact Blog, European Politics and Policy and the LSE Review of Books to learn more about the debates our events series present.

Live captions

Automated live captions are available at this live event. Please note that this feature uses Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) technology, or machine generated transcription and is not 100% accurate.

Photography

Photographs taken on behalf of LSE are often used on our social media accounts, website and publications. At events, photographs could include broad shots of the audience and lecture theatre, of speakers during the talk, and of audience members as they participate in the Q&A.

If you are photographed participating in an event Q&A but would not like your photograph to be stored for future use, please contact events@lse.ac.uk.

Podcasts
We aim to make all LSE events available as a podcast subject to receiving permission from the speaker/s to do this, and subject to no technical problems with the recording of the event. Podcasts are normally available 1 week after the event. Podcasts and videos of past events can be found online.

Social Media

Follow LSE public events on X for the latest updates on all our events and ticket releases. 

Livestreams and archive videos of past lectures are shared on our YouTube channel while event podcasts can be found on the LSE Player.

Event updates and other information about what’s happening at LSE can be found on our Facebook page and for live photos from events and around campus, follow us on Instagram. 

Attending our events in-person or online? Join the conversation using #LSEEvents.

Accessibility
If you are planning to attend this event and would like details on how to get here and what time to arrive, as well as on accessibility and special requirements, please refer to LSE Events FAQ.  LSE aims to ensure that people have equal access to these public events, but please contact the events organiser as far as possible in advance if you have any access requirements so that arrangements, where possible, can be made. If the event is ticketed, please ensure you get in touch in advance of the ticket release date. Access Guides to all our venues can be viewed online.

WIFI Access
LSE has now introduced wireless for guests and visitors in association with 'The Cloud', also in use at many other locations across the UK. If you are on campus visiting for the day or attending a conference or event, you can connect your device to wireless. See more information and create an account at Join the Cloud.
Visitors from other participating institutions are encouraged to use eduroam. If you are having trouble connecting to eduroam, please contact your home institution for assistance.
The Cloud is only intended for guest and visitor access to wifi. Existing LSE staff and students are encouraged to use eduroam instead.

From time to time there are changes to event details so we strongly recommend that if you plan to attend this event you check back on this listing on the day of the event.

How can I attend? Add to calendar

This public event is free and open to all. This event will be a hybrid event, with an in-person audience and an online audience. 

For the in-person event: No ticket or pre-registration is required. Entry is on a first come, first served basis. For any queries see LSE Events FAQ.

For the online event: Registration for this event will open in the second half of December.

For any queries email events@lse.ac.uk.

Share

  Sign up for news about events