Impacts on public policy and services: Smith and Stainforth’s research has stimulated and informed policy debate on climate change since 2007. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report cites Smith (Section 3, reference 2) as the sole article in noting the significant impact of structural model error on its “probability” distributions [A: pg. 797].
Their direct engagement in the policy development process is evidenced by their involvement with the pre-release criticism of UK Climate Projections 2007 (UKCP07). In response to a request from Defra for more information, Smith and Stainforth expressed concerns regarding the fidelity of UKCP07 [B]. Their subsequent involvement in post-study pre-release interactions with the Defra Chief Scientist and Sir Brian Hoskins contributed to the formation of an international review of UKCP07. There are two notable outcomes, firstly, the details of the review of UKCP07 have never been released, and secondly, UKCP07 became UKCP09. Smith’s research and views were quoted extensively in post-release criticism in both scientific and mainstream press [C].
The UK government leads the world in the search for climate forecasts at scales relevant for adaptation decisions. UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) initially claimed to provide detailed predictions (“post code” in space, daily in time) for this century. UKCP09 probabilities, described as best-available and dubbed “Bayesian”, provided core information which underlies the 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA).
The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, led by Sir John Lawton, invited both Smith and Stainforth to give evidence for their report [D]. Smith and Stainforth also contributed to the Treasury’s underpinning research on the economics of climate change, altering the framing of the Stern Review [E].
Impacts on the environment (policy debate on the environment have been stimulated or informed by research and research evidence): Smith and Stainforth’s improved interpretation of climate-model simulations has contributed to changes in how the UKCP09 is presented and government policy on climate change, allowing for better deployment of government funding. For example, the Climate Change Act 2008 committed the government to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Their work also affected the 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) which represents a key part of the Government’s response to the Climate Change Act 2008, itself the first of a series of regular assessments required by law.
Having been severe critics of UKCP09, Smith and Stainforth were, at Defra’s request, both members of the initial framing meeting before beginning the CCRA, as well as reviewers of the draft report. They objected to the violation of methodological restrictions on the use of UKCP09 probabilities in the CCRA that had been agreed at the initial meeting, illustrating the intense pressure to over-interpret the output of climate models.
CATS’s distinct attention to the shift in the rational interpretation of climate predictions away from an optimization approach to a risk based approach founded on broad scientific insights and known vulnerabilities can be seen in the disclaimers of several significant publications (IPCC, UKCP09 program, the UKCP09 user guidance and other government reports), the focus on the Dutch alternative approaches to climate risk management, and the Treasury’s approach to the Stern Review [E].
Consequently, national meteorological services wishing to avoid UKCP09-like approaches within their own borders have been more effective at pressing alternative approaches. For example, Smith and Stainforth provided information to the Dutch meteorological office and Dutch government scientists [F] in support of their successful attempt to avoid a similar process to UKCP09. More recently, members of CATS were invited by the Dutch Government to a closed door meeting on the presentation of uncertainty in the 2013 IPCC Report [G].
Smith and Stainforth continue to engage with Defra, DECC, and a now independent UKCIP to improve how the level and coherence of UK climate information is evidenced and acknowledged.
Economic impacts (where performance of an existing business has been improved): The procurement of climate change research by industry provides further evidence of reach beyond public sector. CATS’ research has been used to clarify the limits on climate simulation for decision making and to improve the performance of EDF, EON, and NG. Smith provided a review of a UK Met Office commercial project purporting to provide high resolution meteorological information for “climate proofing” new long-lived energy infrastructure. In addition to written advice, Smith also represented industry in discussions with the Met Office to clarify the assumptions underlying the proposed study. Smith’s continued engagement with industry partners, Munich Re and Lloyd’s in particular, have allowed them to better interpret climate information [H, I].
International Reach: Smith’s involvement in the Baker Committee [J] for the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), focused on the extent to which the risks of climate change can be quantified. As a key participant in a series of meetings and reviews that led to the preparation of the Harvard Report, Professor Smith contributed his expertise, provided short turn-around calculations on the impact of station distribution, provided an in-depth review of the report and is named as one of the major reviewers. Dr James Baker states, “Professor Smith understands better than most climate scientists what the limitations of the science are and how to use statistical and physical analysis to draw robust conclusions for policy makers” [K].
Smith has represented the American Statistical Association at all three annual American Association for the Advancement of Science’s “Climate Day on Capitol Hill”; engaged with individual Senators’ and Congressmen’s offices (eight/year), and was invited to assist in developing both the American Statistical Association position on climate change and redrafting the American Geophysical Union’s position statement.
Wider Implications: Quantifying the financial value of this case study is nontrivial given the long forward shadow that today’s decisions on climate mitigation and adaptation will cast. Industrial sectors with large-scale infrastructure decisions (energy and ports in particular), and national security agencies familiar with unquantified risk (the US Central Intelligence Agency) have reconsidered their view of the fidelity and robustness of model-based projections, significantly reducing the likelihood of maladaptation through overconfidence of quantitative predictions. Direct costs/spend of particular studies reflect far too low a value (hundreds of thousands to millions of pounds). While the value at risk in the longer term is truly immense, attribution of any fraction of it to our actions is arbitrary. It is estimated that close to £11m was spent on UKCP09, which Smith and Stainforth show to be fundamentally flawed, furthermore, the ill-advised use of products from UKCP09 could cost orders of magnitude more.
Climate change is perhaps the greatest risk that humans will face in this century and the next, and alongside intervention, Smith contributes to public discourse [L]. Smith has publicly argued that effective adaptation to climate change costs a fraction of GDP with long term savings significantly greater. He and colleagues have established that the "probabilities" of UKCP09 are not a reliable foundation, either for adaptation planning or for risk assessment. The value at risk dwarfs the £10m spent on the studies themselves and the inopportune exposure of the weakness in the science base of UK adaptation plans risks a loss of public credibility in science based policy. UKCP09 and the CCRA are stronger than they would have been without the LSE's impact. Other countries including the Netherlands and the USA are more clearly aware of the mathematical shortcomings. The Netherlands have rejected the UK methodology and adopted an entirely different approach.