Dr Zhifang Ni

This course is compulsory on the MSc in Management Science (Decision Sciences). This course is available on the MSc in Management Science (Operational Research). This course is available as an outside option to students on other programmes where regulations permit.

This course is complementary to any behavioural course offered at LSE.

Elementary statistical and mathematical concepts and experience of standard computer software is assumed.

Strategic decision making is a fundamental skill for managers and policy makers. But decisions at strategic level are hard to make. They require large amounts of resources and commitments, which may be irreversible. They involve long-term consequences that are hard to predict. And they require considering multiple, often conflicting, strategic objectives, which are difficult to balance, particularly in the presence of risk and uncertainty.

In this course students will learn how to use Risk and Decision Analysis to support decision making in private and public organisations. Based on rigorous concepts of normative, descriptive and prescriptive decision-making research, the course has an emphasis on the practical application of Risk and Decision Analysis in complex organisational settings and challenging environments.

The course is designed to enhance the students’ decision capabilities when confronted with strategic choices, when searching for decision opportunities, and when designing policies.  It uses illustrations of real-world Risk and Decision Analysis applications in organisations, and employs several case-studies (supported by specialised decision software) to build students' skills in decision modelling and analysis. It covers modelling and supporting decisions involving multiple stakeholders and conflicting objectives (multi-criteria decision analysis, portfolio decision analysis and resource allocation problems) as well as uncertainty (decision trees, influence diagrams, and risk analysis).

20 hours of lectures and 9 hours of seminars in the LT. 2 hours of lectures in the ST.

Belton, V. and Stewart, T. (2002) Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis. London, Kluwer.

Clemen, R.T. and Reilly, T. (2014)  Making Hard Decisions. Pacific Grove: Duxbury.

Edwards W., Miles Jr R.F. and von Winterfeldt D. (eds). Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications. Cambridge University Press: New York.

Eisenführ, F., Weber, M. and Langer, T. (2010) Rational Decision Making, 1st ed. Berlin: Springer.

Goodwin, P. and G. Wright (2014). Decision analysis for management judgement. Chichester, Wiley.

Keeney, R.L. (1992) Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision-making. Cambridge: Harvard Univ. Press. HD30.23 K21 (Course Collection).

Keeney, R. L. and Raiffa, H. (1993) Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-offs. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2nd ed.

Mcnamee, P. and Celona, J. (2007) Decision Analysis for the Professional. Menlo Park: Smart Org, 4th ed (e-book available in the library).

G.S. Parnell et al. (2013) Handbook of Decision Analysis. Hoboke, Wiley.

Roy, B. (1996). Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding. Dordrecht: Kluwer.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W. (1986) Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Exam (100%, duration: 2 hours) in the main exam period.