Dr Gilberto Montibeller NAB 3.16

This course is compulsory on the BSc in Management Sciences. This course is available on the BSc in Business Mathematics and Statistics, BSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, BSc in Economics, BSc in Management and BSc in Statistics with Finance. This course is available as an outside option to students on other programmes where regulations permit and to General Course students.

Elementary statistical concepts and experience of standard computer software is assumed.

The aim of the course is to introduce students to the concepts, techniques and applied aspects of the development and analysis of simulation models. The course will cover two main approaches for modelling problems bound by uncertainty (stochastic behaviour): Monte-Carlo Simulation (static problems) and Discrete Event Simulation (dynamic problems). Topics covered will include: types of uncertainty; types of simulation modelling; sampling methods; the simulation process; structuring problems for simulation; running simulation models; analysing simulation outputs; risk analysis using simulated models; testing and validating simulation models; applications of simulation.

10 hours of lectures and 10 hours of classes in the LT.

Three individual or small-group assignments will be required during the course.

JR Evans & DL Olson (2002) Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis. Prentice-Hall: Upper Saddle River, NJ; AM Law (2006) Simulation Modelling and Analysis. McGraw-Hill: Boston, 4th ed.; M Pidd (2004) Computer Simulation in Management Science. Wiley: Chichester, 5th ed.; S Robinson (2004) Simulation - The Practice of Model Development and Use, Wiley: Chichester; D Vose (2008) Risk Analysis - A Quantitative Guide, Wiley: Chichester, 3rd ed.

Project (100%, 2000 words) in the ST.

An individual management report (maximum 2000 words) describing the modelling and results from a simulation study of a realistic decision problem. The problem will be defined by the end of the LT, the project should be completed by the beginning of the ST.