Dr Gilberto Montibeller NAB 3.16

This course is compulsory on the MSc in Management Science (Decision Sciences). This course is available on the MSc in Management Science (Operational Research). This course is available as an outside option to students on other programmes where regulations permit.

Students must have completed Principles of Decision Sciences (MG455).

This half unit course extends the concept of 'decision capability', that is the ability of people to make judgments and decisions, and shows how that ability can be enhanced with appropriate modelling and analysis. Based on rigorous concepts of normative, descriptive and prescriptive decision-making research, the course has an emphasis on the practice of decision sciences. It uses illustrations of real-world Decision Analysis applications in organisations, and employs several case-studies (supported by specialised decision software) to build students' skills in decision modelling and analysis. It covers modelling and supporting decisions involving multiple stakeholders and conflicting objectives (multi-criteria evaluation and resource allocation problems) as well as uncertainty (decision trees, influence diagrams, risk analysis and Bayesian belief networks).

30 hours of lectures in the LT. 3 hours of lectures in the ST.

One three-hour seminar each week in the LT. Seminars are conducted differently each week, and involve a mixture of lectures, discussions, exercises and projects. One revision session in week 1 of ST.

J. Baron, Thinking and Deciding (3rd Ed.); R. Hastie & R. M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World; W. Edwards & D. von Winterfeldt, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research; P. Goodman & G. Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (3rd Ed.); R.T. Clemen and T. Reilly, Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite. W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, D.v. Winterfeld (Eds.) Advances in Decision Analysis.

Exam (100%, duration: 2 hours) in the main exam period.