Africa is facing a crisis of hunger, with over 280 million people across the continent (a fifth of all Africans) experiencing malnourishment, and over 340 million (one quarter of the entire population) suffering from food insecurity.
“These are staggering numbers, and the issue of food insecurity has been bothering me for some time. Not just because there is this huge level of food deprivation on the African continent, but also that there seems to be almost an acceptance that this is normal, and I don’t think it is,” says David Luke, Professor in Practice and Strategic Director of the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa at LSE, and editor of the forthcoming book How Africa Eats: Trade, Food Security, and Climate Risks, published by LSE Press.
“By any stretch of the imagination, this is huge. But particularly when we consider that in the 21st century, on our planet, there is enough food for everyone.”
Professor Luke is referencing the fact that when we consider food production as calculated against population growth, data shows there is enough food being produced to feed us all. The challenge, of course, is ensuring that everyone in need is able to access enough. “Food insecurity and poverty are interrelated. Where you have high levels of poverty, you are also going to have this level of food insecurity. This is one of the key conclusions of the book,’’ states Professor Luke.
A vulnerable continent and volatile global trading
One of the difficulties in tackling this crisis is the fact that most African countries are net food importers. This means they are largely dependent on global markets, says Professor Luke, highlighting the fact that the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that 82 per cent of African countries’ basic food comes from outside the continent.
The COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increased frequency of extreme weather events have all stoked inflationary pressures around world food markets, leading many G20 countries to further exacerbate the issue by placing export restrictions on food, animal feed and fertilisers. As a result, undernourishment as an indicator of hunger has risen steadily in Africa as a whole since 2010.
How Africa eats and what Africa trades
As part of their analysis of Africa’s hunger problem, Professor Luke and researchers reviewed the eight key products that form the basket of foods considered essential for Africa’s food security: wheat, yams, cassava, maize, rice, poultry, meat and fish.
Of these eight products, only one was found to be competitive across all African countries. "Yam is the only product that is produced competitively and that is driven by its huge production in Nigeria. But yam is also not widely eaten in the rest of the world and is not subsidised in other places of the world," explains Professor Luke.
“Although Africa has a huge coastline, much of the fish around its shores are being exploited by foreign fleets, who then sell the fish back to African countries. It’s not a pretty sight, when we look at production and the trade flows in this way.”
We need better agriculture and food policy
While unpredictable factors like the Russia-Ukraine war have created additional difficulties with regards to food production and global trade, Professor Luke stresses there is a wider, more systemic problem: “policy failures”.
This includes failures at national level, argues Professor Luke, who highlights that while there is important and exciting work being undertaken on climate change and crops, policymakers are still primarily too short-sighted to take full advantage.
“There's a lot of good research that is going on around adaptation to climate change and measures around mitigation and so on. While some of this is already being used in African countries, the level of investment is really very low by African governments themselves and by foreign partners – whether it's foreign direct investment or foreign aid. One of the shocking discoveries we made while researching for this book is that only about eight per cent of foreign aid goes into agriculture.
“It’s clear that we need to be thinking about certain reforms of African economies. Because what is happening currently is not sustainable.”
There was a time where places like India and Bangladesh had these sort of problems, Professor Luke adds. However, “through the right policies and priorities, they overcame them through what has been termed a ‘green revolution’. African countries are yet to put together the political economy coalitions to have a ‘green revolution’.”
Trading and WTO subsidies
Professor Luke points to a lack of investment and trading that has historically served Africa poorly. "African governments are not investing in agriculture. We see that they aren’t meeting their own targets and so this needs to change.
“When we looked at trade, what we found is that African countries are caught in an unsustainable situation, where they export commodities but their cash crops are not what they need for food security. So they are exporting things like coffee, tea and cocoa, and what they earn from these exports is being used to buy food in. This is not really sustainable, and this model has been going on for decades.”
The researchers also took a deep dive into World Trade Organization (WTO) policies, finding both strengths and weaknesses to its current approach. “I began with the view that they were not helpful, but when we looked deeply into this, we found there is in fact a conundrum,” Professor Luke explains.
“The WTO allows agriculture to be subsidised. This means that rich countries that can afford the subsidies lead to overproduction of certain crops that are essential for food security. But those subsidies make food available, so from an African consumption perspective, that's a good thing. Although food is available, however, it's not always affordable. On the other hand, when there’s a crisis, the surplus food that we have on the planet is also often turned into food aid, so that is also a positive.
“From a consumption point of view, the WTO subsidies are good. From a production point of view, however, it also means that countries that cannot subsidise really cannot compete with those that can. The WTO are trying to find ways around this, but this is a conundrum.”
Subsidies may pose a particular problem. However, detailed analysis of the data reveals that WTO regulations, while potentially difficult for African countries, are not the driver of this issue. “We had to conclude that WTO rules are not the problem. This goes back to a lack of investment in agricultural policies and this dependence on commodities that are not growing African economies and so not lifting people out of poverty.”
A blueprint for activists and policymakers
How Africa Eats is underpinned by rigorous and far-reaching research, but written very specifically with non-technical language to ensure activists and policymakers can access and utilise its findings and recommendations. It is data-driven with much use made of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) database.
“One of the things the UN does well is to collect data and provide numbers on what is going on around the world. However, this is not meant to be a textbook,” explains Professor Luke. “We want campaigners in Africa and around the world to be able to use it because, going back to my first point, there are staggering numbers of people facing malnutrition. We hope that our analysis of the connections between food security, agricultural policies, trade, and climate will help drive reform.”
In line with this ethos, How Africa Eats will be published on an open access basis.
How Africa Eats : Trade Food Security and Climate Risks, edited by David Luke, is to be published on 22 May by LSE Press.
