Richard Bradley (LSE) “Chances and Credences”

Abstract: In this talk I will defend two mutually supporting theses about the relation between chances and credences. The first is that chances should be identified with the judgements or credences of a (hypothetical) unbounded and fully informed perfect inductive reasoner and not with any of the possible grounds for her judgements, such as frequencies or propensities. The second is a conditional version of the Principal Principle, which says that that rational conditional belief given the evidence should go by the expectation of conditional chance given this evidence.