Managing Severe Uncertainty: Climate Models Masterclass (1 of 3)

The three masterclasses are in effect a crash course in the natural science aspects of climate change. Everybody wishing to understand the basic physics behind climate change and the use of climate models is welcome to attend; no prior knowledge is presupposed. The first lecture explains the earth’s energy balance and introduces basic concepts such as the greenhouse effect; radiative forcing; time lags; feedback loops; climate sensitivity and climate variability. The second lecture reviews the empirical evidence for climate change and discusses some sceptical claims. The the third lecture introduces climate models and discusses what kinds of uncertainties attach to them.