Two years into Russia’s large scale invasion of Ukraine, the war is entering a new stage. Ukraine’s major allies are facing fresh challenges and changes in their political landscapes.

Despite Ukraine’s resistance, new tranches of military and financial aid to Ukraine are proving difficult to approve and organise. Pre-electoral domestic struggles in the US signal the possibility of the re-distribution of leadership roles within the international coalition in support of Ukraine, and the necessity of re-evaluating current tactics towards not only Ukraine, but Russia as well.

What are the main scenarios possible for the conflict development in 2024 and 2025? Will military developments prevail over diplomacy? Or will diplomatic attempts to stop the war have any prospects? What are the most crucial implications on the Black Sea region security, including NATO member states? 

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Meet our speakers and chair:

Mariia Zolkina is the DINAM Research Fellow in the Department of International Relations at LSE (2022-24). She is a Ukrainian researcher and political analyst working in the fields of regional security, wartime diplomacy, conflict studies and reintegration policies in occupied territories. Since 2014 she has been producing expertise on the Russo-Ukrainian war, focusing mainly on the Donbas region, and has analysed the socio-political implications of the conflict both at the national and international levels. 

Olga Tokariuk is a Chatham House OSUN Academy Fellow, Ukraine Forum. Her main professional interests are international affairs and research on disinformation, especially in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. She is a former fellow at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at Oxford University and CEPA non-resident fellow. Olga’s background is in journalism and she has vast experience in Ukrainian and international media. She is a former head of foreign news desk at the independent Ukrainian Hromadske TV. 

Maryna Vorotnyuk is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in London. Previously, she held the position as Research Fellow in the International Security Studies team at RUSI. She works on security developments in the Black Sea region, Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish foreign policies, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Chair:

Luke Cooper is an Associate Professorial Research Fellow with the Conflict and Civicness Research Group and Director of PeaceRep’s Ukraine programme. Dr Cooper is a historical sociologist and political scientist, whose work studies processes of change and transformation within and between societies. He has written extensively on nationalism, authoritarianism and the theory of uneven and combined development, engaging both contemporary and historical case studies. His most recent book, Authoritarian Contagion; the Global Threat to Democracy, was published by Bristol University Press in 2021.

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The Department of International Relations (@LSEIRDept) at LSE is now in its 96th year, and is one of the oldest as well as largest IR departments in the world, with a truly international reputation. The Department is ranked 2nd in the UK and 4th in the world in the QS World University Ranking by Subject 2023 tables for Politics and International Studies.