Flooding in informal settlements: evidence from Kibera | Ana Varela Varela

Ana Varela Varela is Assistant Professor in Geographic Data Science at the Department of Geography and Environment in the London School of Economics. Ana will be presenting the paper Flooding in Informal Settlements: Evidence from Kibera.

Abstract

Informal settlements house over a billion people worldwide and continue to expand into high-risk areas, such as steep riverbanks, often lacking adequate drainage and sewage systems. However, little is known about the economic livelihoods of residents in these settlements and how they are shaped by flooding, a risk exacerbated by climate change and population growth. To address this gap, we compile a detailed dataset on housing-market dynamics in Kibera, a large informal settlement in Africa, and develop fine-grained flood-risk maps. Preliminary results reveal sorting along flood risk: high-flood-risk properties are rented by lower-income households, who tend to have shorter residency durations, while rents change non-monotonically with flood risk. These patterns are consistent with some degree of information asymmetry about flood risk between property owners and tenants. This study sheds light on the interactions between environmental hazards and housing markets in informal settlements.

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