How can small groups of dedicated activists influence those in positions of power to bring about changes thought to be difficult or impossible in fragile democracies? This question is increasingly important as support for democracy and trust in formal political processes is reducing in many countries, causing citizens to seek alternative ways to have a voice in and change how they are governed. Yet, despite stories and case studies of successful influencing initiatives, few systematic analyses have led to robust insights into what works where.
Specifically, little is known about the “recipes and repertoires” of public and private influencing tactics, ways of organising, modes of collaborating with external actors and responses to opportunities and unexpected events that consistently lead to the widening of civic space and tangible behavioural, policy or legislative changes. This means that existing theory and practical guidance for activists and those that support them is often based on small numbers of case studies, with untested assumptions as to what will work and under what conditions.
AICP’s pilot research project will begin to address this gap by constructing a unique dataset of case studies of successful influencing initiatives by citizen activists working in fragile democracies and supported by international non-governmental organisations (INGOs). The dataset will be used to conduct a two-step, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). This will uncover combinations of tactics and ways of working that consistently influence power holders, draw out similarities and differences among them, and provide insights into the conditions in which they lead to change.
The findings will be of interest to academics that study civil society, governance and public policy. They will also be used to provide actionable recommendations for how activists and INGOs can best spend their energy and resources in future initiatives. This includes challenging assumptions in the existing literature about the role activists and those that support them play in achieving change within complex systems, relative to wider processes, events and agents. Lastly, the pilot will point to avenues for further research and collaborations between the investigators and external organisations.