Wittenberg R, Hancock R, Malley J, King D, Comas-Herrera A, Pickard L and Morciano M (2008) Paying For Long-Term Care: Potential Reforms To Funding Long-Term Care – Free Personal Care, Disregard Of Housing Assets And Wanless Patterns Of Care. PSSRU Discussion Paper.

Jagger C, Matthews R, King D, Comas-Herrera A, Grundy E, Stuchbury R, Morciano M, Hancock R and MAP2030 team (2009) Calibrating disability measures across British national surveys Report to Department for Work and Pensions [PDF].

Publications

Murphy M, Grundy E, and Kalogirou S (2007) 'The increase in marital status differences in mortality up to the oldest age in seven European countries, 1990-99' Population Studies 61(3): 287-98.

Berthoud R and Hancock R (2008) ‘Disability Benefits and Paying for Care’ in Churchill N (ed.) Advancing Opportunity: older people and social care. London: Smith Institute.

Berthoud R and Hancock R, ‘Target Practice’ The Guardian, 6 February 2008.

Costa-i-Font J, Wittenberg R, Patxot C, Comas-Herrera A, Gori C, di Maio A, Pickard L, Pozzi A, Rothgang H (2008) 'Projecting long-term care expenditure in four European Union member states: the influence of demographic scenarios' Social Indicators Research, 86, 2, 303-321.

Jagger C, Matthews R, Lindesay J, Robinson T, Croft P, Brayne C and MRC CFAS. The effect of dementia trends and treatments on longevity and disability. Age and Ageing. 2009, 38, 319–25.

Jagger C, Matthews R, Lindesay J, Robinson T, Croft P, Brayne C and MRC CFAS. The impact of changing patterns of disease on old age disability: a macro-simulation modelling approach. Submitted to the Lancet.

Presentations

Hancock R, Steventon A, Comas-Herrera A, Curry C, King D, Malley J, Pickard L, Wittenberg R (2007). Paying for pensions and long-term care: combining separate projections of long-term care and pension costs and the distributional consequences of reform options. Paper presented by Ruth Hancock and Adam Steventon at the 1st General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association, Vienna, August 20-22 2007.

Linda Pickard a was a discussant (by invitation) at IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor) Workshop on Long-Term Care, Bonn, Germany, 28th – 29th September 2007. The Workshop was an international two-day seminar on family care for older people attended by researchers from the US and six European countries.

Grundy E (2007). "Household change in later life: variations over time and space." Presentation at the Seminar one, ESRC Time-Space and Life-Course seminar series; Newcastle University, December 6-7 2007.

Murphy M (2007). Long-term care use in relation to proximity to death. Paper presented at the Workshop on Aging, Care Need, and Quality of Life – Rostock Jan/Feb 2008.

Hancock R (2008). Discussant at the panel for an ILC- UK-Actuarial Profession debate on ‘Funding Long-term Care – Finding a Fair Solution across the Generations’, held on February 26 2008.

Hancock R and Berthoud R (2008). Speakers at the Smith Institute seminar, held at the King's Fund on March 27 2008, to discuss the issue of the role of disability benefits in paying for care.

Grundy E (2008). Presented paper “Transitions from Independent Households to Supported Environments over Three Decades in England and Wales: Changing Roles of Family and State?” at the Population Association of America Conference (Session 145), New Orleans, April 2008.

Wittenberg R (2008). Presented at a Bank of Italy workshop on Fiscal Sustainability: Analytical Developments and Emerging Policy Issues in April 2008.

Hancock R, Steventon A, Comas-Herrera A, Curry C, King D, Malley J, Pickard L and Wittenberg R (2008). Presentation “Paying for pensions and long-term care combining separate projections of long-term care and pension costs and the distributional consequences of reform” presented at the British Society for Population Studies meeting; London School of Economics and Political Sciences, 16 June 2008.

Pickard L, Wittenberg R, King D, Malley J, Comas-Herrera A (2008). “Informal Care for Older People by their Adult Children: Projections of Demand and Supply in England” presented at the British Society for Population Studies meeting; London School of Economics and Political Sciences, 16 June 2008.

Murphy M (2008). “Mortality trends in Britain and future numbers of older people” presented at the British Society for Population Studies meeting; London School of Economics and Political Sciences, 16 June 2008.

Grundy E (2008). “Household transitions among older people over three decades in England and Wales: a changing balance between family and institutional care?” presented at the British Society for Population Studies meeting; London School of Economics and Political Sciences, 16 June 2008.

Jagger C, Matthews R and the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (2008). “How will changing disease patterns affect the future burden of disability at older ages?” presented at the British Society for Population Studies meeting; London School of Economics and Political Sciences, 16 June 2008.

Jagger C (2008) The impact of changing disease on disability projections. Presented at the British-Irish Council meeting, 29th August 2008.

Read S, Grundy E (2008). “Household transitions among older people over three decades in England and Wales: a changing balance between family and institutional care?” Presentation at Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies, Manchester 10-12 September 2008.

Grundy E (2008). “Fertility history and health in later life: A study of older women and men using the British Household Panel Survey” Presentation at Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies, Manchester 10-12 September 2008.

Jagger C (2009) The impact of disease on Healthy Active Life Expectancy at older ages. Presented at Newcastle University, 2nd April 2009.

Matthews R, Jagger C and MRC CFAS. Trends in disease and how they will impact on disability in the older population. In: 21st Work group meeting REVES, Copenhagen, Denmark, May 2009

Grundy E, Read S (2009) Household changes and later life transitions: trends and implications. Presentation to Modelling Ageing Populations to 2030/European Association for Population Studies Working Group on Demographic Change and the support of older people working group meeting, London School of Economics, May 14 2009

Pickard, L (2009) A future care gap? Informal care for older people by their adult children: Projections of demand and supply in England. Presentation to Modelling Ageing Populations to 2030/European Association for Population Studies Working Group on Demographic Change and the support of older people working group meeting, London School of Economics, May 14 2009

Grundy E (2009) Family support for older people in Europe: determinants and consequences, Seminar on Family support networks and population ageing, Doha, Qatar, 3-4 June 2009.

Malley J, Hancock R, Wittenberg R, Comas-Herrera A, King D, Morciano M and Pickard L (2009) Housing Assets and Long-Term Care in England, Poster presentation at 19th World Congress of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Paris, France, 5-9th July 2009 [PDF].

Pickard L, Wittenberg R, King D, Malley J and Comas-Herrera A (2009) Informal Care for Older People by their Adult Children: Projections of Supply and Demand to 2041 in England. Poster presentation at 19th World Congress of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Paris, France, 5-9th July 2009 [PDF].

Grundy E (2009) Family support networks: perspectives from Europe, UNFPA linked session, 5th World Ageing and Generations Congress, St Gallen, Switzerland, 3-5 September 2009.

Murphy M (2009) Where have all the children gone? Increasing reports of childlessness in a largescale continuous household survey, prepared for XXVI IUSSP International Population Conference, September 2009, Marrakech Session 39: Childlessness in developed countries [PDF].

Murphy M (2009) Long-term effects of the Demographic Transition on cohorts' demographic experiences in Britain, Prepared for Workshop ‘Long Term Implications of the Demographic Transition’ Madrid, 24-26 September 2009, [PDF].

Background papers

The papers listed below are intended to provide some background to the MAP2030 study. They include descriptions of the models and existing linkages between them. They also give an indication of the range of output of the MAP2030 study.

Comas-Herrera A, Wittenberg R, Costa-Font J, Gori C, di Maio A, Patxot C, Pickard L, Pozzi A, Rothgang H (2006) 'Future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom' Ageing and Society 26, 2: 285-302

Curry, C (2003) The under-pensioned (PDF) Pensions Policy Institute

Glaser K, Grundy E and Lynch K (2003) 'Transitions to supported environments in England and Wales among elderly widowed and divorced women: The changing balance between co-residence with family and institutional care'. Journal of Women and Aging.15: 107-126

Grundy, E, and Murphy, M (2006) 'Kin availability, contact and support exchanges between adult children and their parents in Great Britain' pp 195-215 in Fatemah Ebtehaj, Brigit Lindley and Martin Richards (eds) Kinship Matters. Oxford: Hart Publishing

Grundy, E, and Murphy, M (2006) 'Marital status and family support for the oldest-old in Great Britain' pp 415-436 in J-M Robine et al (eds) Human Longevity: Individual Life Duration and the Growth of the Oldest-Old Population. Springer.

Grundy E, Tomassini C (2005) 'Fertility history and health in later life: a record linkage study in England and Wales'. Social Science & Medicine, 61:217-228

Grundy E (2001) 'Living arrangements and the health of older persons in developed countries'. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, Special Issue, Living arrangements of older persons: critical issues and policy responses 42/43: 311-329.

Grundy E (1999) 'Household and family change in mid and later life in England and Wales'. In S McRae (ed) Changing Britain: Families and households in the 1990s. Oxford University Press, Oxford pp 201

Grundy E and Glaser K (1997) 'Trends in, and transitions to, institutional residence among older people in England and Wales, 1971 to 1991'. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 51:531

Hancock, R, Juarez-Garcia, A, Comas-Herrera, A, King, D, Malley, J , Pickard, L, and Wittenberg, R, (2006) Winners and Losers: assessing the distributional effects of long-term care funding reforms (PDF). ISER working paper 2006-43. Colchester: University of Essex (revised version forthcoming in the Journal of Social Policy and Society)

Hancock, R, Pickard, L, Wittenberg, R, Comas-Herrera, A, Juarez-Garcia, A, King, D and Malley, J (2007) Paying For Long-Term Care for Older People in the UK: Modelling the Costs and Distributional Effects of a Range of Options (PDF). Report to the Nuffield Foundation. PSSRU discussion paper 2336/2

Jagger C, Matthews R, Spiers N, Brayne C, Comas-Herrara A, Robinson T, Lindesay J, Croft P (2006) 'Compression or Expansion of Disability? Forecasting future disability levels under changing patterns of diseases'. Appendix to Wanless D, Securing Good Care for Older People, King's Fund, London (PDF)

Kalogirou Stamatis, Michael Murphy (2006) Marital status of people aged 75 and over in nine EU countries in the period 2000-2030. European Journal of Ageing 3(2): 74-81 ISSN: 1613-9372 (Paper) 1613-9380 (Online) DOI: 10 1007/s10433-006-0030-4

Malley, J, Comas-Herrera, A, Hancock, R, Juarez-Garcia, A, Pickard, L and King, D (2006) 'Expenditure on Social Care for Older People to 2026: Projected Financial Implications of the Wanless Report' Appendix to Wanless D, Securing Good Care for Older People, King's Fund, London

Murphy, Michael, Martikainen, Pekka and Pennec, Sophie (2006) Demographic change and the supply of potential family supporters in Britain, Finland and France in the period 1911-2050. European Journal of Population 22(3): 219-40. doi/10 1007/s10680-006-9003-8 ISSN 0168-6577 (Print) 1572-9885 (Online)

Murphy, M (2004) 'Tracing very long-term kinship networks using SOCSIM'. Demographic Research 10: 171-195.

Murphy, M (2004) 'Models of Kinship from the Developed World' pp 31-52 in Sarah Harper (ed) Families in Ageing Societies: A Multi-Disciplinary Approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Murphy, M (2002) 'Consistency in considerations for population projections by ethnic group, and the possible role of microsimulation models' pp17-26 in J Haskey (ed) Population projections by ethnic group a feasibility study. Studies on Medical and Population Subjects No 67 London: TSO. ISBN 0 11 621556 9

Murphy M and D Wang (1999) 'Forecasting British families into the 21st century' pp 100-137 in S McRae (ed) Changing Britain: Families and Households in the 1990s. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Murphy M (1999) 'Is the relationship between fertility of parents and children really weak?' Social Biology 46(1-2):122-145.

Murphy M, K Glaser and E Grundy (1997) 'Marital status and long-term illness in Great Britain'. Journal of Marriage and the Family 59(1): 156-164

Murphy M (1995) 'Methods for forecasting mortality and their performance'. Reviews in Clinical Gerontology 5:217-227.

Murphy M (1995) 'The Prospect of Mortality: England and Wales and the United States of America 1962-1989'. British Actuarial Journal 1(2): 331-350.

Pensions Policy Institute (2006) An evaluation of the White Paper state pension reform proposals Pensions Policy Institute

Pickard L Comas-Herrera A, Costa-Font J, Gori C, di Maio A, Patxot C, Pozzi A, Rothgang H, Wittenberg R (2007) 'Modelling an entitlement to long-term care services in Europe: Projections for long-term care expenditure to 2050'. Journal of European Social Policy, 17, 1: 33-48.

Pickard L, Wittenberg R, Comas-Herrera A, Davies B and Darton R (2000) 'Relying on informal care in the new century? Informal care for elderly people in England to 2031' Ageing and Society 20: 745-772.

Spiers NA, Matthews RJ, Jagger C, Brayne C, Matthews FE, Boult C, Robinson TG, and MRC-CFAS. 'Diseases and impairments as risk factors for disability onset in the older population in England and Wales: Findings from the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS)'. Journal of Gerontology: Medical Sciences 2005, 60A(2):249-255

Steventon, A (2005) What will pensions cost in future? (PDF) Pensions Policy Institute

The Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study. Cognitive function and dementia in six areas of England and Wales: the distribution of MMSE and prevalence of GMS organicity level in the MRC CFA Study. Psychological Medicine 1998, 28:319-335

Wittenberg R, Hancock R, Comas-Herrera A, King D, Malley J, Pickard L, Juarez-Garcia A, and Darton R (2007) "PSSRU Long-term Care Finance Model and CARESIM: Two Linked UK Models of Long-Term Care for Older People" in Gupta A and Harding A (eds) Modelling Our Future: Population Ageing, Health and Aged Care Oxford: Elsevier

Wittenberg R, Comas-Herrera A, King D, Malley J, Pickard L and Darton R (2006) Future Demand for Long-Term Care, 2002 to 2041: Projections of Demand for Long-Term Care for Older People in England (PDF), PSSRU Discussion Paper 2330, March 2006

Wittenberg, R, Pickard, L, Comas-Herrera, A, Davies, B and Darton, R (2001) Demand for long-term care for older people in England to 2031, Health Statistics Quarterly, 12, Winter, 5-17

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