The following is a list of academic papers that arose in part or full as a result of research conducted under the Munich Re programme, 2008-2013.
Frigg, Smith and Stainforth (2013) The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09, Philosophy of Science, 80 (5), pp.886-897.
Millner, Calel, Stainforth and MacKerron (2013) Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?, Climatic Change, 116:427–436.
Lopez, Smith and Suckling (2013) Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y.
Imbers, Lopez, Huntingford and Allen (2013) Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (8), 3192–3199. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50296.
Millner, Dietz and Heal (2013) 'Scientific ambiguity and climate policy', Environmental and Resource Economics, Volume 55, Issue 1, pp 21-46.
Daron and Stainforth (2013) On predicting climate under climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 8 (034021).
Calel, Stainforth and Dietz (2013) Tall tales and Fat tails: The science and economics of extreme warming, Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0911-4.
Stainforth, Chapman and Watkins (2013) Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, Environmental Research Letters, 8 (034031).
Imbers, Lopez, Huntingford and Allen (2013) Sensitivity of climate change detection and attribution to the characterization of internal climate variability, Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00622.1.
Surminski (2013) Private-sector adaptation to climate risk, Nature Climate Change, 3, 943–945.
Suckling and Smith (2013) An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models, Journal of Climate, 26 (23): 9334-9347. [TP19]
Du and Smith (2014) Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation Part I: The Perfect Model Scenario, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-032.1.
Du and Smith (2014) Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation Part II: Assimilation with Imperfect Models, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-033.1.
Frigg, Bradley, Du and Smith (2013) Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of his Apprentices, Philosophy of Science, 81 (1), pp. 31-59. [TP17]
Surminski and Oramas-Dorta (2014) Flood insurance schemes and climate adaptation in developing countries, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.10.005.
Surminski and Williamson (2014) Policy indexes as tools for decision makers - the case of climate policy, Global Policy, Vol. 5, Issue 3, pp.275-285.
Daron and Stainforth (2014) 'Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate', Climate Risk Management (accepted, Jan 14).
Frigg, Bradley, Machete and Smith (2013) 'Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill', in Andersen, H., Dieks, D., Wheeler, G., Gonzalez, W. and Uebel, T. (ed.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. Berlin and New York: Springer, Vol.4, 479-491.
Smith and Petersen (2014) Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy, in M. Boumans, G. Hon and A.C. Petersen (eds.), Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice, London: Pickering & Chatto, pp. 137–156.